Issued: 2:42 PM PST Thursday, January 16, 2020
by Robert Hahn

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Snow/Freezing Level I Precipitation I Free Winds 5k I Free Winds 9k I Extended Weather

Weather Synopsis for Thursday night through Thursday

We're approaching the end of a Pacific Northwest cold air outbreak. Several warm frontal passages have reduced the chance of lowland snow in most areas as temperatures hover in the 30's and 40's throughout the Puget Sound region, with the exception of northern Watcom County where moderate Fraser River outflow continues to keep temperatures below freezing.

The cold, deep Canadian low dominating our weather pattern which has been providing us with a dome of modified arctic air that has been spilling into the region through the Fraser River gap has merged with a low near the northern tip of Vancouver Island. This cold, offshore trough should increase light snow showers across the region as it moves over the forecast area, flattening slightly with a moderate ridge moving into the near-shore waters. 

Light snow showers should decrease Friday morning as the trough shifts east and a warm frontal boundary begins to lift northward ahead of the next system, bringing light snow to the Mt. Hood and South Washington Cascades late in the day. Expect cold temperatures (but not as cold as earlier in the week) for Thursday night and Friday, with a warm front moving into the region, bringing increasing light snow up to the Mt. Rainier or possibly Snoqualmie Pass area by the end of the day. The warm front should also bring a switch to E flow through the passes as the precipitation moves into the region, with a strong low progressing rapidly ENE, about 1000 miles offshore.

Friday night, the warm front lifts north slowly across Washington State overnight, spreading light snow with ESE winds focusing some enhancement of light to moderate snowfall on the E slopes of the Cascades. This warm front will bring rapidly warming temperatures to the west of the Cascade Crest, resuming our more traditional programming of mountain snow and lowland rain. A cold front brings a band of moderate to heavy rain and snow to the coast and Olympics by the early morning hours. Moderate E winds gusting strong through the mountain gaps and foothills, with the peak winds early Saturday morning as the frontal system moves into the Cascades. The frontal passage may or may not result in a brief switch to W wind late Saturday. The volcanoes (Paradise and Baker) are likely to bet around a foot of snow Friday night through Saturday with 6-12" expected for Snoqualmie, Stevens, and Hurricane Ridge.

 

Weather Forecast

Hurricane Ridge
Thursday Night Partly cloudy with isolated snow showers. Cold.
Mt. Baker
Thursday Night Light snow showers. Cold.
Washington Pass and Leavenworth
Thursday Night Light snow showers, mainly near the Cascade Crest with mostly clear skies further east. Cold.
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass
Thursday Night Light snow showers. Light W flow through the Passes and light winds at 5000 ft.
Mt. Rainier, Crystal and White Pass
Thursday Night Light snow showers, mainly from late evening onwards.
Mt. Hood
Thursday Night Light snow showers.

Snow/Freezing Level (ft)

Hurricane Ridge Mt. Baker Washington Pass Leavenworth Stevens Pass Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier, Crystal & White Pass Mt. Hood
Thursday Evening Snow Level 0' 500' 500' 1000' 1000' 1000' 1000' 1500'
Thursday Night Snow Level 0' 0' 0' 0' 0' 0' 0' 500'
Friday Morning Snow Level 0' 0' 0' 0' 0' 0' 0' 500'
Friday Afternoon Snow Level * 500' 0' 0' 500' 500' 500' 500' 1000'
Friday Evening Snow Level * 1000' 500' 0' 500' 1000' 1000' 1000' 2000'
Friday Night Snow Level * 2000' 500' 0' 0' 1000' 1000' 1500' 2500'
Saturday Morning Snow Level * 3000' 1500' 0' 0' 1000' 1500' 2000' 3000'
Hurricane Ridge Elevation
Thursday Evening Snow Level
0'
Thursday Night Snow Level
0'
Friday Morning Snow Level
0'
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Evening Snow Level
1000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Night Snow Level
2000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Morning Snow Level
3000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
4000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Mt. Baker Elevation
Thursday Evening Snow Level
500'
Thursday Night Snow Level
0'
Friday Morning Snow Level
0'
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
0'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Evening Snow Level
500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Night Snow Level
500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Morning Snow Level
1500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
2500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Washington Pass Elevation
Thursday Evening Snow Level
500'
Thursday Night Snow Level
0'
Friday Morning Snow Level
0'
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
0'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Evening Snow Level
0'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Night Snow Level
0'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Morning Snow Level
0'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
1500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Leavenworth Elevation
Thursday Evening Snow Level
1000'
Thursday Night Snow Level
0'
Friday Morning Snow Level
0'
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Evening Snow Level
500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Night Snow Level
0'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Morning Snow Level
0'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
1000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Stevens Pass Elevation
Thursday Evening Snow Level
1000'
Thursday Night Snow Level
0'
Friday Morning Snow Level
0'
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Evening Snow Level
1000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Night Snow Level
1000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Morning Snow Level
1000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
2000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Thursday Evening Snow Level
1000'
Thursday Night Snow Level
0'
Friday Morning Snow Level
0'
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Evening Snow Level
1000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Night Snow Level
1000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Morning Snow Level
1500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
2500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Mt. Rainier & Crystal Elevation
Thursday Evening Snow Level
1000'
Thursday Night Snow Level
0'
Friday Morning Snow Level
0'
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Evening Snow Level
1000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Night Snow Level
1500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Morning Snow Level
2000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
3000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Mt. Hood Elevation
Thursday Evening Snow Level
1500'
Thursday Night Snow Level
500'
Friday Morning Snow Level
500'
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
1000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Evening Snow Level
2000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Night Snow Level
2500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Morning Snow Level
3000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
4000'
(Easterly Flow *)

* Easterly flow in the Cascade Passes can cause locally lower Snow or Freezing levels than areas further west.
Freezing Level is when no precipitation is forecast.

Precipitation Forecast

Thursday Night Thursday Thursday Night Thursday
4 pm - 4 am 4 am - 4 pm 4 pm - 4 am 4 am - 4 pm
Hurricane Ridge LT 0.10 0 0.50 LT 0.10
Mt Baker Ski Area LT 0.25 LT 0.10 0.50 1.00
Washington Pass 0 LT 0.10 LT 0.25 0.50
Leavenworth 0 0 LT 0.25 0.25 - 0.50
Stevens Pass LT 0.10 LT 0.10 LT 0.25 0.50
Snoqualmie Pass LT 0.25 LT 0.10 0.25 0.50 - 0.75
Mission Ridge 0 0 0.25 0.25 - 0.50
Crystal Mt 0 LT 0.10 0.50 0.50
Paradise LT 0.25 LT 0.25 0.50 - 0.75 0.75
White Pass LT 0.10 LT 0.10 0.25 0.25 - 0.50
Mt Hood Meadows LT 0.10 0.25 0.50 0.75
LT 0.25 0.25 0.50 0.75
Hurricane Ridge Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night LT 0.10
Thursday 0
Thursday Night 0.50
Thursday LT 0.10
Mt Baker Ski Area Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night LT 0.25
Thursday LT 0.10
Thursday Night 0.50
Thursday 1.00
Washington Pass Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night 0
Thursday LT 0.10
Thursday Night LT 0.25
Thursday 0.50
Leavenworth Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night 0
Thursday 0
Thursday Night LT 0.25
Thursday 0.25 - 0.50
Stevens Pass Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night LT 0.10
Thursday LT 0.10
Thursday Night LT 0.25
Thursday 0.50
Snoqualmie Pass Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night LT 0.25
Thursday LT 0.10
Thursday Night 0.25
Thursday 0.50 - 0.75
Mission Ridge Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night 0
Thursday 0
Thursday Night 0.25
Thursday 0.25 - 0.50
Crystal Mt Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night 0
Thursday LT 0.10
Thursday Night 0.50
Thursday 0.50
Paradise Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night LT 0.25
Thursday LT 0.25
Thursday Night 0.50 - 0.75
Thursday 0.75
White Pass Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night LT 0.10
Thursday LT 0.10
Thursday Night 0.25
Thursday 0.25 - 0.50
Mt Hood Meadows Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night LT 0.10
Thursday 0.25
Thursday Night 0.50
Thursday 0.75
Timberline Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night LT 0.25
Thursday 0.25
Thursday Night 0.50
Thursday 0.75

Free Winds at 5000' (mph)

Hurricane Ridge Mt. Baker Stevens to Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier Mt. Hood
Thursday Evening SW 0 - 10 SW 5 - 15 WSW 5 - 15 WSW 5 - 15 W 15 - 25
Thursday Night SW 0 - 10 WSW 0 - 10 WSW 10 - 20 WSW 5 - 15 WSW 15 - 25
Friday Morning SSE 0 - 10 SSE 5 - 15 SSW 0 - 10 S 0 - 10 SSW 10 - 20
Hurricane Ridge Elevation
Thursday Evening SW 0 - 10
Thursday Night SW 0 - 10
Friday Morning SSE 0 - 10
Friday Afternoon SSE 5 - 15
Mt. Baker Elevation
Thursday Evening SW 5 - 15
Thursday Night WSW 0 - 10
Friday Morning SSE 5 - 15
Friday Afternoon SSE 5 - 15
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Thursday Evening WSW 5 - 15
Thursday Night WSW 10 - 20
Friday Morning SSW 0 - 10
Friday Afternoon ESE 5 - 15
Mt. Rainier Elevation
Thursday Evening WSW 5 - 15
Thursday Night WSW 5 - 15
Friday Morning S 0 - 10
Friday Afternoon S 5 - 15
Mt. Hood Elevation
Thursday Evening W 15 - 25
Thursday Night WSW 15 - 25
Friday Morning SSW 10 - 20
Friday Afternoon SW 15 - 25
Hurricane Ridge Direction - Speed
Thursday Evening SW 0 - 10
Thursday Night SW 0 - 10
Friday Morning SSE 0 - 10
Friday Afternoon SSE 5 - 15
Mt. Baker Direction - Speed
Thursday Evening SW 5 - 15
Thursday Night WSW 0 - 10
Friday Morning SSE 5 - 15
Friday Afternoon SSE 5 - 15
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Direction - Speed
Thursday Evening WSW 5 - 15
Thursday Night WSW 10 - 20
Friday Morning SSW 0 - 10
Friday Afternoon ESE 5 - 15
Mt. Rainier Direction - Speed
Thursday Evening WSW 5 - 15
Thursday Night WSW 5 - 15
Friday Morning S 0 - 10
Friday Afternoon S 5 - 15
Mt. Hood Direction - Speed
Thursday Evening W 15 - 25
Thursday Night WSW 15 - 25
Friday Morning SSW 10 - 20
Friday Afternoon SW 15 - 25

Directions above indicate the direction the wind blows from on the 16-point cardinal scale. These winds indicate "free" winds, or those winds in the atmosphere not influenced by terrain. Topographical effects may produce greater or lower wind speeds in certain locations as well as significant variations in direction.

Free Winds at 9000' (mph)

Mt. Baker Washington Pass Stevens to Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier Mt. Hood
Thursday Evening SW 10 - 20 SW 10 - 20 WSW 20 - 30 WSW 20 - 30 W 30 - 40
Thursday Night WSW 15 - 25 W 15 - 25 W 25 - 35 W 25 - 35 W 25 - 35
Friday Morning WSW 10 - 20 WSW 10 - 20 W 20 - 30 WSW 20 - 30 W 30 - 40
Mt. Baker Direction - Speed
Thursday Evening SW 10 - 20
Thursday Night WSW 15 - 25
Friday Morning WSW 10 - 20
Friday Afternoon WSW 10 - 20
Washington Pass Direction - Speed
Thursday Evening SW 10 - 20
Thursday Night W 15 - 25
Friday Morning WSW 10 - 20
Friday Afternoon WSW 10 - 20
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Direction - Speed
Thursday Evening WSW 20 - 30
Thursday Night W 25 - 35
Friday Morning W 20 - 30
Friday Afternoon WSW 25 - 35
Mt. Rainier Direction - Speed
Thursday Evening WSW 20 - 30
Thursday Night W 25 - 35
Friday Morning WSW 20 - 30
Friday Afternoon WSW 30 - 40
Mt. Hood Direction - Speed
Thursday Evening W 30 - 40
Thursday Night W 25 - 35
Friday Morning W 30 - 40
Friday Afternoon WSW 35 - 45

Extended Weather Synopsis for Thursday night through Thursday

Expect moderate to strong E flow and a large difference in temperature across the Cascade range with cold air entrenched east of the Cascade Crest and warmer air moving in West of the Crest.

Moisture lingers from the frontal system Saturday night with moisture moving northward rather than eastward. A weaker developing system well offshore should renew E flow with the Pacific Northwest in the warm sector of the storm and morning rain and snow expected in northern parts of the forecast area. A ridge builds over the region Sunday and amplifying as it moves eastward. Snow levels should rise to well above Cascade Crest level on Sunday night and Monday, with low-level cold air continuing to keep Pass levels cool. Models diverge regarding the threat of another system Sunday night and Monday. 

Extended Snow/Freezing Levels

Mt. Baker Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Hood Easterly Flow *
Saturday Night Snow Level 3000' - 4000' 3000' - 4000' 4000' - 5000' *
Sunday Snow Level 4000' - 5000' 4500' - 5500' 6500' - 7500' *
Sunday Night Snow Level 6000' - 7000' 7000' - 8000' 7500' - 8500' *
Mt. Baker Elevation
Saturday Night Snow Level
3000' - 4000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Snow Level
4000' - 5000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Night Snow Level
6000' - 7000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Snow Level
5500' - 7000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Saturday Night Snow Level
3000' - 4000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Snow Level
4500' - 5500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Night Snow Level
7000' - 8000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Snow Level
5500' - 7500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Mt. Hood Elevation
Saturday Night Snow Level
4000' - 5000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Snow Level
6500' - 7500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Night Snow Level
7500' - 8500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Snow Level
5500' - 7500'
(Easterly Flow *)

* Easterly flow in the Cascade Passes can cause locally lower Snow or Freezing levels than areas further west.
Freezing Level is when no precipitation is forecast.

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Snow/Freezing Level I Precipitation I Free Winds 5k I Free Winds 9k I Extended Weather

Previous forecast from Jan 16, 2020

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