Issued: 2:33 PM PST Wednesday, January 17, 2018
by Robert Hahn

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Snow/Freezing Level I Precipitation I Free Winds 5k I Free Winds 9k I Extended Weather

Weather Synopsis for Wednesday & Thursday

A deep Pacific upper level and surface low is moving E-NE on Wednesday morning in the direction of the Queen Charlotte Islands and is located approximately 700 miles off the coast of Oregon. It sits north of a strong E-W jet. The Pacific Northwest lies near the western edge of a broad, shallow ridge centered to our east and the deep upper trough and low pressure to the west.

Associated with the low pressure offshore, a warm front is lifting northward over the Pacific Northwest this morning bringing a relatively narrow band of light to occasionally moderate rain and snow to the Olympics and central/north Cascades. Temperatures are borderline in the mountain passes, but easterly flow will keep much of this precipitation in the form of snow in spite of anticipated warming aloft during the late morning hours. By noon, most precipitation will have lifted north into Canada.

During the early afternoon hours on Wednesday, the associated cold front will bring rain to the Olympics and by the late afternoon hours the frontal rain band will begin to bring rain and high elevation snow to the west slopes of the Cascades with the cold front crossing the Cascade crest just before midnight. The frontal passage will usher in a cooler air mass on a SW flow and snow levels should drop to pass levels by Thursday morning.

On Thursday, The large low pressure center will begin to fill (become less deep) as it sits and spins near the southern end of the Queen Charlotte Islands with an associated trough 500 miles offshore of our coastline. A moist SW flow should continue on Thursday and Thursday night as the trough digs southward and slightly east. Significant snowfall is expected and particularly high totals can be expected in areas favored by the SW flow (Baker and Rainier) with lower water amounts expected in the Cascade Passes.

Weather Forecast

Olympics
Wednesday Decreasing light rain and snow early in the morning. Increasing moderate to occasionally heavy rain during the afternoon. Moderate SSE crest-level winds becoming strong during the afternoon hours.
Wednesday Night Moderate to heavy rain and high elevation snow becoming decreasing light to moderate showers after midnight Decreasing moderate winds. Moderate to heavy rain and snow in the evening hours becoming light to moderate showers. Heaviest Baker and Mt. Rainier. Lighter in the passes. Moderate SW crest-level winds.
Thursday Light snow showers.
Washington Cascades near and west of the Crest including Stevens, Snoqualmie and White Passes
Wednesday Clouds thickening in the afternoon with rain and high elevation snow arriving by evening. Increasing generally SSE crest-level winds becoming moderate late in the day.
Wednesday Night Increasing moderate to heavy rain and snow during the evening hours becoming light to moderate showers after midnight. Precipitation favors Mt Baker and to a lesser extent Mt. Rainier with less precipitation falling in the passes. Decreasing moderate crest-level SW winds.
Thursday Light to moderate rain or snow showers decreasing. Heaviest Mt. Rainier and Mt. Baker.
East Slopes of the Washington Cascades
Wednesday Clouds thickening in the late afternoon. Increasing generally SSE winds.
Wednesday Night Increasing moderate rain and snow during the evening hours becoming light showers after midnight. Decreasing moderate crest-level SW winds.
Thursday Light rain or snow showers decreasing, possibly dry in the central part.
Mt. Hood
Wednesday Cloudy skies. Moderate southerly winds developing late.
Wednesday Night Light to moderate rain and high elevation snow becoming moderate to heavy before changing to light to moderate showers by morning with lowering snow levels.
Thursday Light to moderate rain and snow showers becoming light by afternoon.

Snow/Freezing Level (ft)

Hurricane Ridge Mt. Baker Washington Pass Leavenworth Stevens Pass Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier, Crystal & White Pass Mt. Hood
Wednesday Afternoon Snow Level * 6000' 6500' 4000' ' ' 6500' ' 8000'
Wednesday Night Snow Level * 4000' 4000' 4000' ' ' 4500' ' 5500'
Thursday Morning Snow Level 3000' 3000' 3000' ' ' 3000' ' 3500'
Thursday Afternoon Snow Level * 2500' 2500' 2500' ' ' 2500' ' 3000'
Hurricane Ridge Elevation
Wednesday Afternoon Snow Level
6000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Wednesday Night Snow Level
4000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Morning Snow Level
3000'
Thursday Afternoon Snow Level
2500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Night Snow Level
2500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Mt. Baker Elevation
Wednesday Afternoon Snow Level
6500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Wednesday Night Snow Level
4000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Morning Snow Level
3000'
Thursday Afternoon Snow Level
2500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Night Snow Level
2500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Washington Pass Elevation
Wednesday Afternoon Snow Level
4000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Wednesday Night Snow Level
4000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Morning Snow Level
3000'
Thursday Afternoon Snow Level
2500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Night Snow Level
2000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Leavenworth Elevation
Wednesday Afternoon Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Wednesday Night Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Morning Snow Level
'
Thursday Afternoon Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Night Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Stevens Pass Elevation
Wednesday Afternoon Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Wednesday Night Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Morning Snow Level
'
Thursday Afternoon Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Night Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Wednesday Afternoon Snow Level
6500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Wednesday Night Snow Level
4500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Morning Snow Level
3000'
Thursday Afternoon Snow Level
2500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Night Snow Level
2000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Mt. Rainier & Crystal Elevation
Wednesday Afternoon Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Wednesday Night Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Morning Snow Level
'
Thursday Afternoon Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Night Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Mt. Hood Elevation
Wednesday Afternoon Snow Level
8000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Wednesday Night Snow Level
5500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Morning Snow Level
3500'
Thursday Afternoon Snow Level
3000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Night Snow Level
2500'
(Easterly Flow *)

* Easterly flow in the Cascade Passes can cause locally lower Snow or Freezing levels than areas further west.
Freezing Level is when no precipitation is forecast.

Precipitation Forecast

Thursday Thursday
Hurricane Ridge 0 - 1.00 0 - 0.75
Mt Baker Ski Area 2.00 - 2.50 0 - 2.00
Washington Pass 0 - 0.75 0.25 - 0.50
Stevens Pass 0.25 - 0.50 0.25 - 0.50
Snoqualmie Pass 0 - 0.50 0.25 - 0.50
Mission Ridge 0.25 - 0.50 LT 0.10
Crystal Mt 0 - 1.00 0.50 - 0.75
Paradise 0 - 1.00 0.75 - 1.00
White Pass 0 - 0.50 0 - 0.50
Mt Hood Meadows 0.50 - 0.75 0.25 - 0.50
0 - 0.75 0 - 0.50

Free Winds at 5000' (mph)

Hurricane Ridge Mt. Baker Stevens to Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier Mt. Hood
Wednesday Afternoon SSE 45 - 65 SE 35 - 50 SE 30 - 40 --- - S 30 - 40
Wednesday Night SSW 30 - 45 SSW 30 - 40 SW 20 - 30 --- - SW 25 - 35
Thursday Morning SSW 25 - 35 SSW 20 - 30 SW 25 - 35 --- - SW 25 - 35
Thursday Afternoon SSW 25 - 35 SSW 20 - 30 SW 20 - 30 --- - SW 20 - 30
Hurricane Ridge Elevation
Wednesday Afternoon SSE 45 - 65
Wednesday Night SSW 30 - 45
Thursday Morning SSW 25 - 35
Thursday Afternoon SSW 25 - 35
Thursday Night SSW 20 - 30
Mt. Baker Elevation
Wednesday Afternoon SE 35 - 50
Wednesday Night SSW 30 - 40
Thursday Morning SSW 20 - 30
Thursday Afternoon SSW 20 - 30
Thursday Night S 15 - 25
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Wednesday Afternoon SE 30 - 40
Wednesday Night SW 20 - 30
Thursday Morning SW 25 - 35
Thursday Afternoon SW 20 - 30
Thursday Night SW 15 - 25
Mt. Rainier Elevation
Wednesday Afternoon --- -
Wednesday Night --- -
Thursday Morning --- -
Thursday Afternoon --- -
Thursday Night --- -
Mt. Hood Elevation
Wednesday Afternoon S 30 - 40
Wednesday Night SW 25 - 35
Thursday Morning SW 25 - 35
Thursday Afternoon SW 20 - 30
Thursday Night SW 15 - 25
Hurricane Ridge Direction - Speed
Wednesday Afternoon SSE 45 - 65
Wednesday Night SSW 30 - 45
Thursday Morning SSW 25 - 35
Thursday Afternoon SSW 25 - 35
Thursday Night SSW 20 - 30
Mt. Baker Direction - Speed
Wednesday Afternoon SE 35 - 50
Wednesday Night SSW 30 - 40
Thursday Morning SSW 20 - 30
Thursday Afternoon SSW 20 - 30
Thursday Night S 15 - 25
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Direction - Speed
Wednesday Afternoon SE 30 - 40
Wednesday Night SW 20 - 30
Thursday Morning SW 25 - 35
Thursday Afternoon SW 20 - 30
Thursday Night SW 15 - 25
Mt. Rainier Direction - Speed
Wednesday Afternoon --- -
Wednesday Night --- -
Thursday Morning --- -
Thursday Afternoon --- -
Thursday Night --- -
Mt. Hood Direction - Speed
Wednesday Afternoon S 30 - 40
Wednesday Night SW 25 - 35
Thursday Morning SW 25 - 35
Thursday Afternoon SW 20 - 30
Thursday Night SW 15 - 25

Directions above indicate the direction the wind blows from on the 16-point cardinal scale. These winds indicate "free" winds, or those winds in the atmosphere not influenced by terrain. Topographical effects may produce greater or lower wind speeds in certain locations as well as significant variations in direction.

Free Winds at 9000' (mph)

Mt. Baker Washington Pass Stevens to Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier Mt. Hood
Wednesday Afternoon SSW 70 - 90 SSW 50 - 70 SSW 50 - 70 --- - SSW 65 - 85
Wednesday Night SSW 60 - 80 SSW 40 - 60 SSW 50 - 70 --- - SSW 65 - 85
Thursday Morning SW 35 - 50 SW 40 - 60 SW 40 - 60 --- - SW 45 - 65
Thursday Afternoon SW 30 - 40 SW 40 - 60 SW 30 - 40 --- - SW 30 - 40
Mt. Baker Direction - Speed
Wednesday Afternoon SSW 70 - 90
Wednesday Night SSW 60 - 80
Thursday Morning SW 35 - 50
Thursday Afternoon SW 30 - 40
Thursday Night SW 30 - 40
Washington Pass Direction - Speed
Wednesday Afternoon SSW 50 - 70
Wednesday Night SSW 40 - 60
Thursday Morning SW 40 - 60
Thursday Afternoon SW 40 - 60
Thursday Night SW 30 - 40
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Direction - Speed
Wednesday Afternoon SSW 50 - 70
Wednesday Night SSW 50 - 70
Thursday Morning SW 40 - 60
Thursday Afternoon SW 30 - 40
Thursday Night SW 30 - 40
Mt. Rainier Direction - Speed
Wednesday Afternoon --- -
Wednesday Night --- -
Thursday Morning --- -
Thursday Afternoon --- -
Thursday Night --- -
Mt. Hood Direction - Speed
Wednesday Afternoon SSW 65 - 85
Wednesday Night SSW 65 - 85
Thursday Morning SW 45 - 65
Thursday Afternoon SW 30 - 40
Thursday Night SW 30 - 40

Extended Weather Synopsis for Thursday night through Thursday

On Friday, the trough digs south to California with its axis over the entire west coast. The weakening upper and surface low pressure centers continue to spin over the Queen Charlotte Islands bringing onshore split flow before dissipating Friday night as a well-organized system moves in from the west and replaces the original low center by early Sunday morning. Onshore westerly flow continues for the duration of the period until the surface front associated with the new low approaches Saturday night or Sunday morning, bringing a brief shift to southerly winds, brief slight warming, and then a return to westerly flow in its wake.

Extended Weather

Olympics, Washington Cascades and Mt. Hood Area
Friday Light to occasional moderate snow showers, increasing slightly in the afternoon with a gradual shift toward more westerly flow Friday night. Light to occasional moderate snow showers continuing. Saturday Light snow showers. A shift to southerly flow late in the day with possible relative break in precipitation. Light to moderate rain and snow Saturday night. Sunday Return to cool westerly flow and light to moderate snow showers on Sunday.

Extended Snow/Freezing Levels

Mt. Baker Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Hood Easterly Flow *
Friday Snow Level 2000' - 3000' 2000' - 3000' 2000' - 3000'
Friday Night Snow Level 2000' - 3000' 2000' - 3000' 1500' - 2500'
Saturday Snow Level 2000' - 3000' 2000' - 3000' 2000' - 3000'
Saturday Night Snow Level 2000' - 4000' 2000' - 4000' 2000' - 4000' *
Mt. Baker Elevation
Friday Snow Level
2000' - 3000'
Friday Night Snow Level
2000' - 3000'
Saturday Snow Level
2000' - 3000'
Saturday Night Snow Level
2000' - 4000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Snow Level
2000' - 4000'
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Friday Snow Level
2000' - 3000'
Friday Night Snow Level
2000' - 3000'
Saturday Snow Level
2000' - 3000'
Saturday Night Snow Level
2000' - 4000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Snow Level
1500' - 3500'
Mt. Hood Elevation
Friday Snow Level
2000' - 3000'
Friday Night Snow Level
1500' - 2500'
Saturday Snow Level
2000' - 3000'
Saturday Night Snow Level
2000' - 4000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Snow Level
2000' - 4000'

* Easterly flow in the Cascade Passes can cause locally lower Snow or Freezing levels than areas further west.
Freezing Level is when no precipitation is forecast.

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Snow/Freezing Level I Precipitation I Free Winds 5k I Free Winds 9k I Extended Weather

Previous forecast from Jan 17, 2018

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