Issued: 2:44 PM PST Monday, January 15, 2018
by Robert Hahn

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Snow/Freezing Level I Precipitation I Free Winds 5k I Free Winds 9k I Extended Weather

Weather Synopsis for Monday & Thursday

A strong and high amplitude upper ridge has moved its axis to western Montana on Monday afternoon. The ridge will provide one more day of very warm temperatures (including some record highs) as high clouds provide filtered sunlight to most areas on Monday afternoon with thicker clouds moving over the region by the evening hours. Inversion conditions persist east of the Cascade crest with cooler air, low clouds and fog persisting in the valleys with an offshore pressure gradient bringing the cooler air through the passes.

Monday night, a weakening cold front will arrive after midnight, bringing 3-4 hours of light to occasionally moderate precipitation. The cold front should moderate the airmass from the unseasonable warmth we've seen with the high pressure system.

Tuesday, in the wake of the weakening cold front, an associated upper trough will bring light rain and snow showers, mainly to the Cascade west slopes and Olympics. The trough lifts northward as it progresses eastward, allowing warmer air to work into the forecast zones and reducing instability, generally cutting off precipitation from south to north on Tuesday afternoon.

Tuesday night should feature fair weather and increasing high clouds as a stronger frontal system will be approaching the Pacific Northwest coastal waters.

Weather Forecast

Olympics
Monday Filtered sunlight with high clouds and warm temperatures. Clouds thickening and lowering in the afternoon.
Monday Night Periods of light and occasionally moderate rain or snow, mainly after midnight. Snow line lowering overnight. Windy.
Tuesday Light rain and snow showers, ending late in the day.
Washington Cascades near and west of the Crest including Stevens, Snoqualmie and White Passes
Monday High clouds bringing filtered sunshine with cloud cover increasing in the afternoon. Low clouds and cooler with inversion conditions at the passes.
Monday Night Increasing clouds with light to moderate rain and snow in the early morning hours.
Tuesday Light rain and snow showers, mainly volcanoes and North Cascades. Becoming mostly cloudy in the afternoon.
East Slopes of the Washington Cascades
Monday Filtered sunshine with high clouds; low clouds and cooler with inversion conditions at low elevations.
Monday Night Clouds lowering with light rain or high elevation snow in the early morning hours. Possible wintry mix in some deeper valleys.
Tuesday Cloudy in the morning with isolated rain and snow showers in the north, mainly high elevations; becoming partly sunny in the south and mostly cloudy in the north by the afternoon.
Mt. Hood
Monday High clouds bringing filtered sunshine with cloud cover increasing in the afternoon.
Monday Night Light rain or snow after midnight. Snow line lowering overnight.
Tuesday Light rain and snow showers decreasing or ending in the afternoon.

Snow/Freezing Level (ft)

Hurricane Ridge Mt. Baker Washington Pass Leavenworth Stevens Pass Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier, Crystal & White Pass Mt. Hood
Monday Afternoon Freezing Level * 9000' 10000' 10000' ' ' 10000' ' 9500'
Monday Night Snow Level * 5000' 5500' 5000' ' ' 5500' ' 5500'
Tuesday Morning Snow Level * 3500' 4000' 4000' ' ' 4000' ' 4000'
Tuesday Afternoon Snow Level * 3500' 3500' 3500' ' ' 3500' ' 4000'
Hurricane Ridge Elevation
Monday Afternoon Freezing Level
9000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Night Snow Level
5000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Tuesday Morning Snow Level
3500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Tuesday Afternoon Snow Level
3500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Tuesday Night Snow Level
4500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Mt. Baker Elevation
Monday Afternoon Freezing Level
10000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Night Snow Level
5500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Tuesday Morning Snow Level
4000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Tuesday Afternoon Snow Level
3500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Tuesday Night Snow Level
3000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Washington Pass Elevation
Monday Afternoon Freezing Level
10000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Night Snow Level
5000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Tuesday Morning Snow Level
4000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Tuesday Afternoon Snow Level
3500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Tuesday Night Snow Level
3000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Leavenworth Elevation
Monday Afternoon Freezing Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Night Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Tuesday Morning Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Tuesday Afternoon Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Tuesday Night Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Stevens Pass Elevation
Monday Afternoon Freezing Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Night Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Tuesday Morning Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Tuesday Afternoon Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Tuesday Night Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Monday Afternoon Freezing Level
10000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Night Snow Level
5500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Tuesday Morning Snow Level
4000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Tuesday Afternoon Snow Level
3500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Tuesday Night Snow Level
3000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Mt. Rainier & Crystal Elevation
Monday Afternoon Freezing Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Night Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Tuesday Morning Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Tuesday Afternoon Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Tuesday Night Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Mt. Hood Elevation
Monday Afternoon Freezing Level
9500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Night Snow Level
5500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Tuesday Morning Snow Level
4000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Tuesday Afternoon Snow Level
4000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Tuesday Night Snow Level
6000'
(Easterly Flow *)

* Easterly flow in the Cascade Passes can cause locally lower Snow or Freezing levels than areas further west.
Freezing Level is when no precipitation is forecast.

Precipitation Forecast

Thursday Thursday
Hurricane Ridge LT 0.25 LT 0.25
Mt Baker Ski Area LT 0.25 0 - 0.75
Washington Pass LT 0.10 0 - 0.50
Stevens Pass LT 0.25 LT 0.25
Snoqualmie Pass LT 0.25 LT 0.25
Mission Ridge LT 0.10 LT 0.25
Crystal Mt LT 0.25 LT 0.25
Paradise 0.25 - 0.50 0 - 0.50
White Pass LT 0.10 LT 0.25
Mt Hood Meadows LT 0.25 LT 0.25
LT 0.25 LT 0.25

Free Winds at 5000' (mph)

Hurricane Ridge Mt. Baker Stevens to Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier Mt. Hood
Monday Morning ESE 5 - 15 SE 10 - 20 E 15 - 25 --- - ESE 10 - 20
Monday Afternoon SE 20 - 30 ESE 10 - 20 ESE 20 - 30 --- - SE 15 - 25
Monday Night S 25 - 35 SE 15 - 25 E 15 - 25 --- - SE 15 - 25
Tuesday Morning SSW 15 - 25 S 20 - 30 SW 15 - 25 --- - SW 20 - 30
Tuesday Afternoon SW 15 - 25 S 10 - 20 SW 20 - 30 --- - SW 15 - 25
Hurricane Ridge Elevation
Monday Morning ESE 5 - 15
Monday Afternoon SE 20 - 30
Monday Night S 25 - 35
Tuesday Morning SSW 15 - 25
Tuesday Afternoon SW 15 - 25
Tuesday Night S 10 - 20
Mt. Baker Elevation
Monday Morning SE 10 - 20
Monday Afternoon ESE 10 - 20
Monday Night SE 15 - 25
Tuesday Morning S 20 - 30
Tuesday Afternoon S 10 - 20
Tuesday Night S 10 - 20
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Monday Morning E 15 - 25
Monday Afternoon ESE 20 - 30
Monday Night E 15 - 25
Tuesday Morning SW 15 - 25
Tuesday Afternoon SW 20 - 30
Tuesday Night SW 10 - 20
Mt. Rainier Elevation
Monday Morning --- -
Monday Afternoon --- -
Monday Night --- -
Tuesday Morning --- -
Tuesday Afternoon --- -
Tuesday Night --- -
Mt. Hood Elevation
Monday Morning ESE 10 - 20
Monday Afternoon SE 15 - 25
Monday Night SE 15 - 25
Tuesday Morning SW 20 - 30
Tuesday Afternoon SW 15 - 25
Tuesday Night S 10 - 20
Hurricane Ridge Direction - Speed
Monday Morning ESE 5 - 15
Monday Afternoon SE 20 - 30
Monday Night S 25 - 35
Tuesday Morning SSW 15 - 25
Tuesday Afternoon SW 15 - 25
Tuesday Night S 10 - 20
Mt. Baker Direction - Speed
Monday Morning SE 10 - 20
Monday Afternoon ESE 10 - 20
Monday Night SE 15 - 25
Tuesday Morning S 20 - 30
Tuesday Afternoon S 10 - 20
Tuesday Night S 10 - 20
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Direction - Speed
Monday Morning E 15 - 25
Monday Afternoon ESE 20 - 30
Monday Night E 15 - 25
Tuesday Morning SW 15 - 25
Tuesday Afternoon SW 20 - 30
Tuesday Night SW 10 - 20
Mt. Rainier Direction - Speed
Monday Morning --- -
Monday Afternoon --- -
Monday Night --- -
Tuesday Morning --- -
Tuesday Afternoon --- -
Tuesday Night --- -
Mt. Hood Direction - Speed
Monday Morning ESE 10 - 20
Monday Afternoon SE 15 - 25
Monday Night SE 15 - 25
Tuesday Morning SW 20 - 30
Tuesday Afternoon SW 15 - 25
Tuesday Night S 10 - 20

Directions above indicate the direction the wind blows from on the 16-point cardinal scale. These winds indicate "free" winds, or those winds in the atmosphere not influenced by terrain. Topographical effects may produce greater or lower wind speeds in certain locations as well as significant variations in direction.

Free Winds at 9000' (mph)

Mt. Baker Washington Pass Stevens to Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier Mt. Hood
Monday Morning SSE 15 - 25 SSE 15 - 25 S 20 - 30 --- - S 20 - 30
Monday Afternoon S 25 - 35 S 25 - 35 S 25 - 35 --- - S 30 - 40
Monday Night S 30 - 40 S 25 - 35 SSW 30 - 40 --- - SSW 30 - 40
Tuesday Morning SSW 25 - 35 S 30 - 40 SSW 30 - 40 --- - SSW 35 - 45
Tuesday Afternoon SW 25 - 35 SW 25 - 35 SW 30 - 40 --- - WSW 30 - 40
Mt. Baker Direction - Speed
Monday Morning SSE 15 - 25
Monday Afternoon S 25 - 35
Monday Night S 30 - 40
Tuesday Morning SSW 25 - 35
Tuesday Afternoon SW 25 - 35
Tuesday Night SW 20 - 30
Washington Pass Direction - Speed
Monday Morning SSE 15 - 25
Monday Afternoon S 25 - 35
Monday Night S 25 - 35
Tuesday Morning S 30 - 40
Tuesday Afternoon SW 25 - 35
Tuesday Night SW 20 - 30
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Direction - Speed
Monday Morning S 20 - 30
Monday Afternoon S 25 - 35
Monday Night SSW 30 - 40
Tuesday Morning SSW 30 - 40
Tuesday Afternoon SW 30 - 40
Tuesday Night SW 30 - 40
Mt. Rainier Direction - Speed
Monday Morning --- -
Monday Afternoon --- -
Monday Night --- -
Tuesday Morning --- -
Tuesday Afternoon --- -
Tuesday Night --- -
Mt. Hood Direction - Speed
Monday Morning S 20 - 30
Monday Afternoon S 30 - 40
Monday Night SSW 30 - 40
Tuesday Morning SSW 35 - 45
Tuesday Afternoon WSW 30 - 40
Tuesday Night SW 25 - 35

Extended Weather Synopsis for Thursday night through Thursday

Wednesday, a warm front will lift northward bringing short-lived, but significant warming. Precipitation will largely remain north of the forecast area, but some will extend into the Olympics and West slopes of the Washington Cascades.

Wednesday night, the associated cold front arrives with a well-definied N-S oriented frontal rain-band. This feature should bring moderate crest-level winds and a strong barrier jet along the west slopes of the Cascades.

An upper trough and surface low associated with the aforementioned cold front spins approximately 500 miles off the coast of Vancouver Island on Thursday, bringing SW flow, moisture, and a colder air mass into our region.

Beginning Thursday night, the upper trough and surface low move W-SW to the Puget Sound, arriving by Saturday morning. This low brings slight cooling and sustained onshore flow with instability combining to bring a good round of precipitation at low snow levels to the mountains.

Extended Weather

Olympics, Washington Cascades and Mt. Hood Area
Wednesday Light rain and snow in the morning, retreating north by afternoon. Another round of moderate rain and snow arriving in the Olympics in the afternoon. Moderate to occasionally heavy rain and snow spreads throughout the Cascades Wednesday night along with moderate crest-level southerly winds and light to moderate easterly flow in the passes. The low-elevation sites east of the Cascade crest and Snoqualmie pass may see a wintry mix overnight with a change to rain by morning with the frontal passage at pass level. Thursday Light to moderate rain and snow showers should arrive on a SW flow Thursday and should continue overnight. Friday The flow becomes more westerly and rain and snow becomes moderate Friday and Friday night with significant snowfall accumulation in the Cascades.

Extended Snow/Freezing Levels

Mt. Baker Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Hood Easterly Flow *
Wednesday Snow Level 5500' - 6500' 4500' - 6500' 6000' - 8000' *
Wednesday Night Snow Level 3000' - 4000' 3000' - 4000' 3000' - 4000' *
Thursday Snow Level 2000' - 3000' 2000' - 3000' 2500' - 3500'
Thursday Night Snow Level 1500' - 2500' 1500' - 2500' 1500' - 2500'
Mt. Baker Elevation
Wednesday Snow Level
5500' - 6500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Wednesday Night Snow Level
3000' - 4000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Snow Level
2000' - 3000'
Thursday Night Snow Level
1500' - 2500'
Friday Snow Level
2000' - 3000'
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Wednesday Snow Level
4500' - 6500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Wednesday Night Snow Level
3000' - 4000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Snow Level
2000' - 3000'
Thursday Night Snow Level
1500' - 2500'
Friday Snow Level
2500' - 3500'
Mt. Hood Elevation
Wednesday Snow Level
6000' - 8000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Wednesday Night Snow Level
3000' - 4000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Snow Level
2500' - 3500'
Thursday Night Snow Level
1500' - 2500'
Friday Snow Level
2000' - 3000'

* Easterly flow in the Cascade Passes can cause locally lower Snow or Freezing levels than areas further west.
Freezing Level is when no precipitation is forecast.

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Snow/Freezing Level I Precipitation I Free Winds 5k I Free Winds 9k I Extended Weather

Previous forecast from Jan 15, 2018

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