Backcountry Avalanche Forecast
WA Cascades near and west of crest - north of Stevens Pass
In order to provide a better and more complete avalanche forecast on a regular basis, the primary avalanche forecasts will be issued between 11 AM and 12 PM PST on a daily basis, with updates issued whenever significant deviations occur. The timing and the products will be adjusted as necessary during the upcoming winter in order to produce the best possible avalanche information.
Weather Service ID WAZ-513-518-519-018-042-501-502-ORZ-011
| Friday | Saturday | Sunday | ||||||
| 6am-Noon | Noon-6pm | 6am-Noon | Noon-6pm | 6am-Noon | Noon-6pm | |||
| Danger Trend | Level | Slightly Increasing | Slightly Decreasing | Strongly Increasing | Strongly Increasing | Slightly Increasing | ||
| 7000' | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | ||
| 6000' | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | ||
| 5000' | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | ||
| 4000' | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | ||
| 3000' | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | ||
| Notes: This represents a regional scale avalanche forecast for each elevation and time period shown. For complete information see the detailed avalanche forecast. | ||||||||
Jump to Danger Scale Legend at bottom of forecast
Forecast
OLYMPICS- WASHINGTON CASCADES NEAR AND WEST OF THE CREST-
Friday and Friday night: Considerable avalanche danger above 5000 feet and moderate below, gradually increasing late Friday and Friday night.
Saturday morning: Slightly decrease danger becoming considerable above 6000 feet and moderate below.
Saturday afternoon and night: Increasing avalanche danger becoming considerable above 4 to 5000 feet and moderate below.
Outlook Sunday: Further increasing danger becoming considerable above 4000 feet and moderate below
Snowpack Analysis
Light amounts of new snow fell early Thursday at warming temperatures. Further warming occurred late Thursday through early Friday with little additional precipitation. The exception was the extreme north Cascades and Olympics that received heavy amounts of wet snow.
This has allowed for significant snowpack settlement and consolidation, allowing previously unstable layers to strengthen.
The warming along with wind transported snow caused some natural avalanches Thursday morning, while ski cuts by pro patrollers produced significant soft slab releases that propagated well and ran long distances, even on some lower angled terrain.
There has now been nearly 24 hours with little or no precipitation and relatively mild temperatures, allowing for these layers to settle and stabilize.
Lower elevation area reports early Friday indicate that the previously wet surface snow has now formed a thin surface crust helping to minimize the current danger. Some areas of unstable wind slab still remain above 6000 feet on steep open lee slopes that should be avoided.
Backcountry travelers are encouraged to view any recently posted snowpack condition reports as well as submit your own observations on the FOAC Snowpack Information Exchange at www.nwac.us find under the Resources tab - User Input - Snowpack Information Exchange
Detailed Forecasts
Friday and Friday night
Gradually increasing light to moderate rain or snow with cooling temperatures early Friday. Increasing snow with further cooling increasing winds late Friday . This weather should further freeze any remaining old wet snow and begin to build new wind slab layers on lee slopes at higher elevations.
Increasing caution is urged later Friday, especially on steeper open slopes above treeline.
Saturday and Saturday night
A brief break between weather systems should allow for decreasing winds early Saturday through midday and a slight decrease in danger. Increasing moderate to heavy snow at cooling temperatures and increasing very strong winds late Saturday and Saturday night is expected to cause a significantly increasing danger. Unstable wind slabs should be widespread on lee slopes above about 4-5000 feet where extreme caution is advised in avalanche terrain late Saturday. Continued heavy snow and very strong winds expected Saturday night should further increase the avalanche danger.
Sunday and Sunday night
Heavy snow showers and very strong winds should cause a further increasing danger Sunday. Increasingly deep unstable wind slab layers are expected through Sunday with slab depths of 1 to 3 feet becoming possible, especially on northeast through southeast facing slopes at higher elevations.
Danger Scale Legend
| 5 | = Extreme avalanche danger | |
| 4 | = High avalanche danger | |
| 3 | = Considerable avalanche danger | |
| 2 | = Moderate avalanche danger | |
| 1 | = Low avalanche danger | |
Warning = Extreme or high avalanche danger occurring or expected to occur within 12 hours: at or below 4000 feet in the Olympics and/or WA Cascades; at or below 5000 feet in the Mt. Hood Area.
Watch = Warning conditions expected within 12-48 hours.
Special Conditions = Unusual conditions meriting special attention that do not meet Watch or Warning criteria.
Click here for complete definitions of the avalanche danger scale.
Backcountry travelers should be aware that elevation and geographic distinctions are approximate and that a transition zone between dangers exists. Remember there are avalanche safe areas in the mountains during all levels of avalanche danger. Contact local authorities in your area of interest for further information.
NWAC weather data and forecasts are also available by calling 206-526-6677 for Washington, 503-808-2400 for the Mt Hood area, or by visiting our Web site at www.nwac.us. Remember that these avalanche forecasts apply to back country avalanche terrain below 7000 feet outside of developed and operating ski areas or highways.