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Backcountry Avalanche Forecast

Olympics

Northwest Weather and Avalanche Center Seattle Washington
1410 PM PST Fri Mar 12 2010

The NWAC program is administered by the USDA-Forest Service and operates out of the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Seattle. NWAC services are made possible by important collaboration and support from a variety of federal, state and private cooperators.

Weather Service ID WAZ513-518-519-019-042-501-502-ORZ011

  Friday Saturday Sunday
 
  6am-Noon Noon-6pm 6am-Noon Noon-6pm 6am-Noon Noon-6pm
Danger Trend Slightly Increasing Slightly Decreasing   Level Slightly Decreasing   Level Slightly Increasing
7000' 4 4   4 4   3 3
6000' 4 4   4 3   3 3
5000' 4 4   3 3   3 3
4000' 4 3   3 2   2 2
3000' 4 3   2 2   2 2
Notes: This represents a regional scale avalanche forecast for each elevation and time period shown. For complete information see the detailed avalanche forecast.

Jump to Danger Scale Legend at bottom of forecast

Forecast

Friday and Friday night: High avalanche danger below 7000 feet Friday morning, gradually decreasing Friday afternoon and night and becoming high above 6000 feet, considerable from 4 to 6000 feet and moderate below 4000 feet.

Saturday and Saturday night: Slowly decreasing avalanche danger becoming considerable above 4 to 5000 feet and moderate below

Sunday and Sunday night: Slightly increasing avalanche danger mid-day through Sunday night, especially sun exposed terrain

Snowpack Analysis

Increasing amounts of wind driven snow at slowly rising freezing levels were deposited over a variety of buried weak layers Thursday through early to mid Friday morning, with 24 hour snowfall amounts ranging from about 6 to over 15 inches. This increasingly dense snow fell on a highly variable snow surface ranging from thin to thick crusts, surface hoar to "dust on crust", up to about a foot of low density snow over an old slightly faceting crust (depending on location, aspect and elevation). The most important old weak layers include very low density snow, spotty surface hoar, and a slightly faceting old crust. The resultant dangerous snow structure produced a significant danger increase Thursday into Thursday night as slowly thickening and increasingly sensitive wind slabs spread to lower elevations, especially on northwest through northeast exposures.

Field reports from a variety of locations during the past 12 to 24 hours, including Alpental and Crystal Mountain, indicate a very sensitive snowpack structure, with mostly 1 to 3 foot wind slabs releasing quite easily by ski or snowboard, especially on northwest and north through east exposures. Also some isolated slabs ranging up to 4 to 6 feet were reported on mid-morning control at Crystal Mt in some heacily wind loaded terrain where large pillows developed. Shooting cracks, whumpfing, sympathetic slides and remotely triggered avalanches were also reported in several locations, along with increased natural avalanche activity. As of early Friday afternoon, this remains a relatively spooky and very dangerous snowpack above about 5000 feet, and back country travel in higher elevation terrain is not recommended.

Detailed Forecasts

Friday and Friday night

Increasing moderate rain or snow spreading into most areas Friday morning was accompanied by strong winds and slight cooling later Friday morning. This helped to maintain the avalanche warning through mid-day and slightly increased the current generally high avalanche danger in the Olympics, and Cascades near and west of the crest. With a variety of buried weak layers already in place, dangerous avalanche conditions continued on most lee slopes through at least mid-day, especially on northwest through northeast facing slopes which should receive most wind transport and where the most fragile old weak layers exist. Whumpfing, shooting cracks and remotely triggered and/or sympathetic avalanches should remain possible especially where recent surface hoar was buried intact. Along with sensitive cornices that could easily fail through human triggers and a strong probability of thickening slabs of up to 2 to 4 feet releasing on buried weaknesses in more heavily wind loaded terrain, back country travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended Friday morning and mid-day.

It should also be noted that owing to the recent and current strong winds, a relatively stable and wind scoured/hardened snowpack may exist on wind exposed terrain immediately adjacent to very unstable slabs on lee terrain. Also, some paths may have significant wind pillows developing much lower and larger than normal due to the strong winds, with the result that fracture initiation may start lower than normal in some slide paths.

Moderate snow should decrease and become more showery Friday afternoon with light to occasionally moderate showers slightly increasing late Friday night. While rapidly lowering freezing levels are expected, moderate to strong winds Friday afternoon and evening should only very slowly decrease overnight. While this weather combined with previous slide activity should allow for a slow decrease in the danger, mainly at lower and mid elevations, careful snowpack evaluation, cautious routefinding and conservative decsion making should remain essential  in order to avoid avalanche involvement.

Saturday and Saturday night

Light to moderate showers Saturday morning should further decrease mid-day and become scattered Saturday afternoon. Along with decreasing winds and continued low freezing levels, associated slow settlement of recent large wind slabs should combine with decreasing load to allow for a slow decrease in the danger in most locations, especially at lower elevations where some previously wet surface snow may have formed a weak crust. However, expected cold temperatures and some residual wind transport should limit the danger decrease on lee slopes near higher ridgelines...mainly north, northeast and east exposures above about 5 to 6000 feet. Also, a local slight danger increase is possible on slopes receiving sun breaks Saturday afternoon. As a result, continued careful snowpack evaluation and cautious routefinding are urged, and conservative decision making is still strongly encouraged on slopes not experiencing stabilization through recent avalanche releases.

Although some increase in mid and high clouds is likely Saturday night, low freezing levels and relatively light winds should allow for futher slow settlement and stabilization of recent slabs overnight.

Outlook Sunday

A moderate to strong front should stall and slowly weaken along the Washington coast on Sunday. Several impulses on this front should intermittently nudge the front eastward. This should result in periods of occasional light rain or snow in the Olympics and northern Cascades and considerable mid and high cloudiness further south (in the central and southern Cascades).  Along with rising freezing levels and some increase in ridgetop winds in the Olympics, this weather should produce a gradual increase in the avalanche danger…especially on wind loaded terrain at higher elevations, areas receiving light rain or snow in the Olympics and northern Cascades, and on slopes receiving filtered sunshine in the south and central Cascades. Increasing loose or isolated slab slide activity may be possible as a result of either warming or sunshine effects...or light rain in the Olympics and extreme north.

As the front nudges further eastward Sunday night, associated increasing ridgetop winds may begin to reload lee slopes...mostly northeast through northwest exposures...at higher elevations.


Danger Scale Legend

5 = Extreme avalanche danger
4 = High avalanche danger
3 = Considerable avalanche danger
2 = Moderate avalanche danger
1 = Low avalanche danger

Warning = Extreme or high avalanche danger occurring or expected to occur within 12 hours: at or below 4000 feet in the Olympics and/or WA Cascades; at or below 5000 feet in the Mt. Hood Area.

Watch = Warning conditions expected within 12-48 hours.

Special Conditions = Unusual conditions meriting special attention that do not meet Watch or Warning criteria.

Click here for complete definitions of the avalanche danger scale.


Backcountry travelers should be aware that elevation and geographic distinctions are approximate and that a transition zone between dangers exists. Remember there are avalanche safe areas in the mountains during all levels of avalanche danger. Contact local authorities in your area of interest for further information.

NWAC weather data and forecasts are also available by calling 206-526-6677 for Washington, 503-808-2400 for the Mt Hood area, or by visiting our Web site at www.nwac.us. Remember that these avalanche forecasts apply to back country avalanche terrain below 7000 feet outside of developed and operating ski areas or highways.

The NWAC program is administered by the USDA-Forest Service. NWAC forecasts, data and avalanche or mountain weather information are made possible by partnerships between the Forest Service and many important cooperators, including the National Weather Service, Washington State Department of Transportation, Washington State Parks and Recreation Commission, Washington Snowparks and Snowmobile Grants, National Park Service, Ski Washington, Pacific Northwest Ski Area Association, the Friends of the Avalanche Center and others.

This forecast is prepared for cooperators and users of the NWAC, as an aide to tranportation and recreational operations, and to help promote public safety in the NW mountains.

Moore/Northwest Weather and Avalanche Center Seattle Washington